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Probability of Win (PWin)

The Probability of Win, or $P_W$ is a simple measure of the percentage of “winning” trades of a strategy over a given time interval. A trade is considered a “win” if it has a profit of greater than or equal to zero. The calculation is:

$$ Pw = \frac{Winning Trades}{Total Trades} * 100 $$


$P_W$ is one of the variables in the expectancy calculation.

The MCI strategies are designed to produce a high $P_W$, which is one of the ways that risk is reduced. To see how $P_W$ factors into our strategies, take a look at our Strategy Overview.

See Also Performance Metrics

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PWin | risk | expectancy |